Service Plays Monday 6/7/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking

Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners

This Cy Young winner was brought to the northwest in hopes of helping the M’s challenge for the AL West. And while the Mariners season hasn’t gone as well as many Seattle fans hoped, Lee has been as good as advertised.

The lefty is playing for a new contract and if his numbers keep up, he’ll command a big figure in the offseason. Lee has an ERA under 3.00, batters are hitting just .225 and he’s surrendering fewer any a runner per inning.

But this best stat has to be his strikeout to walk ratio. Lee has 50 K’s compared to just four walks in 52 and 2/3 innings this season. The best part is you can usually get Lee at a cheap price because the Mariners have been so bad this season.

Carlos Silva, Chicago Cubs

It’s been too long now. We can no longer call Carlos Silva’s 2010 campaign a fluke. The Cubs hurler enjoyed his finest outing of the season last week against the Cardinals. He pitched seven innings of two-hit ball, didn’t allow a run or a walk and struck out 11.

"It's pretty easy to be back there when he can throw a pitch exactly where you want it. His game seems like you don't have to do anything, you just kind of steer the reins in one direction or another and let the big boy do what he does best. He was really, really, good today," Chicago catcher Koyie Hill told reporters after the game.

The result extended Chicago’s win streak to nine games whenever Silva takes the mound, so yeah.. he’s pretty hot right now.

Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves

For a second straight day we’ve got an Atlanta pitcher in the streaking section. Probably explains why the club has been playing so well lately.

The Braves would have traded for Lowe a pack of gum in the offseason after a brutal end to the 2009 campaign. This year didn’t start much better but Lowe shook off those early struggles and appears to have rediscovered his former form.

The former Dodger and Red Sox ace has four quality starts in his last five outings and he’s surrendered just two earned runs in his last 15 innings pitched. The sinker-ball hurler credits his turnaround with relying more on his changeup. Whatever he’s doing, it’s definitely working.

Slumping

Dana Eveland, Pittsburgh Pirates

This is the third go-around in the last two seasons for Eveland. The Oakland A’s showed him the door last winter and the Jays did the same after an unimpressive month of May.

So Eveland is Pittsburgh now hoping to keep a job in the big leagues. If you don’t remember how bad things got before Toronto cut ties with him, here’s a brief reminder: last three starts – 9 and 1/3 innings pitched, 17 earned runs, 10 walks, five strikeouts and two home runs.

Wade LeBlanc, San Diego Padres

After opening the season with back-to-back wins, LeBlanc has fallen off the momentum wagon over the past month. He is 0-4 over his last four starts, but even more troubling are the short appearances he is making lately.

LeBlanc has lasted just 14 total innings in his last three starts, allowing as many earned runs. It makes for an easy to calculate but hard to figure ERA of 9.00.

Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians

Frustration has set in for Carmona, who hasn't received much run support or defensive help from the Indians recently. In his last three starts, all losses, Carmona has allowed just nine earned runs in 20 innings of work.

Unfortauntely for him, the Indians have scored just six combined runs in his last three starts. They also committed four errors to prolong Carmona's time on the mound and the pressure on his shoulders.

The impact of those silent bats and fielding mistakes seem to have shattered Carmona's confidence he had earlier in the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB RoundUp

National League

Cubs (-155) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
With the way the Cubs keep shifting starters around, this one probably won't even be Silva by the early morning. But, assuming it is, you have to think Chicago has its best chance to finally put together a couple wins against the Pirates. Dana Eveland has been just incredibly bad, and after all we heard about his new mindset, Eveland's stuff is still the same. Carlos Silva is 7-0 on the season, and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against Pittsburgh, but we've all seen how the Cubs play against Pittsburgh this season. I'd love to fade Eveland, especially with the consistency we've seen from Silva, but until the Cubs look like they have any prayer of figuring out the Pirates, that isn't going to happen. Leans: None

Padres @ Phillies (-180) with a total of 9
David Eckstein is 3-for-6 with an RBI off Hamels;
Scott Hairston is 4-for-10 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Hamels;
Chase Headley is 3-for-9 with 2 RBI off Hamels.
Hamels is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA against the Padres, and while Scott Hairston continues to mash lefties, this series has been decidedly Phils-friendly. The Padres finally got themselves a close one yesterday, and managed to squeak it out in extra-innings, but it's really taking some powerhouse efforts for them to keep up. And that's just the thing for San Diego - they are going to win close games, and they can keep games close with about 85% of the teams in the MLB, but when they go head-to-head with the better offensive teams, even one in a slump, they have some issues. Hamels is having a better 2010, though his last rain-shortened start didn't help his ERA. LeBlanc hasn't looked that great lately, and while he pitched well enough against the Mets, it seems like teams are starting to figure out his new delivery and new pitch selection. Leans: None

Giants @ Reds (-130) with a total of 8
Freddy Sanchez is 4-for-12 off Cueto;
Brandon Phillips is 4-for-10 off Zito with an RBI.
I desperately want to find a way to fade Barry Zito, since I still feel like he's overvalued, and the Giants remain a huge question mark on the road, but recent trends make me a tad nervous. Zito is coming off a very strong start against the Rockies. Yes, he always pitches well against Colorado, and his lifetime 3-2 record and 7.13 ERA against the Reds makes me think that the Colorado start didn't mean a great deal, but he should, at least, have some confidence. Cueto, on the other hand, has never started against the Giants, and is coming off an outing where he gave up 8 runs to the Cardinals. Cueto's having a solid year, and the Reds are getting the job done day in and day out. This one is a tougher call than it should be. Leans: Reds

Astros @ Rockies (-170) with a total of 9
Michael Bourn is 4-for-7 off Hammel with 1 RBI;
Todd Helton is 11-for-22 with 5 RBI off Rodriguez;
Ryan Spilborghs is 5-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Rodriguez.
Hammel is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA against the Astros, and Wandy Rodriguez continues to struggle through 2010, going 3-7 so far, and a terribly 5.07 ERA on top of that. Rodriguez is coming off one of his better starts, going 5 innings and allowing 1 run to the Nationals, but can we really call that a turning point? Wandy's been just fine at Coors in his career, posting an ERA in the 3's, but I just can't quite trust him enough, especially with Hammel trending up. Leans: None

Braves @ Diamondbacks (-123) with a total of 9
Melky Cabrera is 4-for-10 off Haren;
Omar Infante is 4-for-9 off Haren;
Brian McCann is 3-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI off Haren;
Nate McLouth is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Haren;
Stephen Drew is 15-for-31 with a HR off Lowe;
Mark Reynolds is 7-for-22 with 4 RBI off Lowe;
Justin Upton is 5-for-8 off Lowe.
This is an odd match-up, as the D'backs tend to play the Braves relatively tough, and Arizona appears to have regained some sort of offensive stroke since returning home off a miserable roadie. The Braves come to town, still pretty hot, though not quite as blindingly hot as when they left home, themselves. Atlanta is coming off a pretty tough series with the Dodgers, so I wonder if they're in any kind of letdown spot. Still, Derek Lowe has a career 3.68 ERA against the D'backs, and Haren has an ugly career 6.44 ERA against the Braves, and that makes Atlanta look a little tempting. Leans: Braves

Cardinals @ Dodgers with a total of N/A
No data, here, but we can assume the Dodgers are going to be reasonable favorites with St. Louis sending a no-name to the hill. Walters is coming off an ugly outing, and the Dodgers can really hit, so the question lies with how these teams handle the head-to-head battle. The Cardinals have had the Dodgers number in the regular season for quite some time, though LA has been able to take care of the Cards in the Playoffs, so who has the edge? I guess every year is a new year, but I'm not sure I feel comfortable backing the Dodgers against a team that just rolls into LA and always plays extra hard. Let's wait on some lines, here, and then reassess, but I have a feeling the value of backing a middle reliever-turned-starter for LA is just not going to be all that great. Leans: Dodgers

American League

Red Sox (-155) @ Indians with a total of 9
David Ortiz is 4-for-8 with a HR and 4 RBI off Carmona;
Marco Scutaro is 7-for-18 off Carmona;
Jason Varitek is 3-for-6 off Carmona;
Travis Hafner is 3-for-8 off Matsuzaka.
This is a rather short line for the Red Sox on the road, but I suppose Daisuke is the reason. Matsuzaka seems to be alternating decent starts and bad ones, and if we go on that trend, today would be a bad one. I offered the thought that perhaps Daisuke's arm is just not strong enough to start every 5 days and go deep in the game. I don't know if it's still arm fatigue, but that would point us to Carmona. There are plenty of notes pointing us away from Carmona, though, including his 1-2 record against Boston, 5.94 ERA against Boston, and his usual inability to go deep in the ballgame. Still, laying -155 on the road with a guy on pace for a bad start is obviously the worse of the two evils. Leans: Indians

Mariners (-130) @ Rangers with a total of 8.5
Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-10 with 3 RBI off Feldman;
Josh Hamilton is 4-for-10 off Lee;
Ian Kinsley is 7-for-13 with 5 RBI off Lee;
Michael Young is 6-for-20 with 2 RBI off Lee.
Prior to going 7 shutout innings against Texas earlier this season, the Rangers had been a team that had given Cliff Lee all kinds of issues in his career. He has a career 9.19 ERA at Rangers Ballpark at Arlington, and given his lifetime 6.15 ERA against Texas, it's easy to see that he's been significantly worse down in Texas than he was against the Rangers elsewhere. So, this is a fade spot for an ace. But what about the other cat? Scott Feldman has been a disaster this year, but he did pitch well against Seattle back in April, and I wonder if he can't harness some of that again here, with the Rangers really hitting well on this homestand so far. He's 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA against the Mariners. Leans: Rangers

Angels @ Athletics (-125) with a total of 8.5
Jack Cust is 4-for-12 off Kazmir.
Alright, this is a tough one. Any time you're handicapping a pitcher with a ceiling as high as Kazmir, but whose performances have been nothing short of unbearable, there's always the possibility he comes out and throws a gem. Kazmir is, in fact, coming off a pretty decent start against the Royals. His leash is shorter than most Angels starters, considering how much he's stunk, but with an upward trend and a lifetime 8-3, 2.96 mark against Oakland, this is certainly a team that he COULD potentially have success against. Sheets made his first start of 2010 against the Angels, and gave a quality outing, nothing more. He's been relatively consistent, lately, good enough to beat a bad Kazmir, but not good enough to beat a lights out version of Kazmir. Leans: Angels

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher POD 6/7 game 1

Play of the Day:
Chicago Cubs -143 over the Pittsburgh Pirates

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HOT LINES
Monday's Best MLB Bets
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125, 9)
Here's what we know: The Braves have won 21 of their last 28. The Diamondbacks have lost 11 of their last 13. The Braves have won four of the last five matchups.
So naturally the D-backs are a slight favorite over the Braves. Really? Makes no sense, especially with Derek Lowe going to the mound for Atlanta. The veteran seems to be getting better and stronger with age, winning four of his last five starts.
The D-backs are batting just .204 against lefties this season and Lowe has the gas to go deep in the game. He was impressive in his last start, scattering six hits and striking out seven in eight innings of work.
"He's done an outstanding job of making his pitches and getting big ground balls," said Braves catcher David Ross. "What was really nice tonight was how deep he went into the game. We'd been using our bullpen a lot lately (so it was good) to give those back-end guys a little rest."
Arizona counters with Dan Haren, who has had some success against Atlanta, but the Braves' bats and trends are too hot to ignore.
Pick: Atlanta Braves

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (+125, 8.5)
How long before supersticious Cubs fans come up wth some kind of curse about the Pirates?
The Bucs have beaten the Cubs like bongos this season, taking nine of the last 10 meetings. Eight of those 10 went under the total and the last four meetings featured a total of 22 runs - or just over five runs per game.
Neither team has had much success scoring runs this season. Both squads have scored more than five runs only three times over the past month - once against each other.
The Cubs send out red-hot Carlos Silva, who has allowed only five earned runs over his last three stars. The Pirates counter with newcomer Dana Eveland, who was 3-4 with the Blue Jays but is new to the AL. Not only will he struggle batting in the nine-hole, but the Cubs have never seen this lefty in action.
All signs point to another poor offensive affair, or is it the Curse of the Bucs?
Pick: Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR ODonnell | MLB Money Line Mon, 06/07/10 - 7:10 PM

dime bet 954 CIN (-130) BetUS vs 953 SFG
Analysis:
Cinnci Reds Knock Out Punch Tonight!! Play those Reds!! They are for real

CINNCI REDS AND J CUETO -130 game @ 7:05

let's break this baby down

B Zito and the San Fran Giants are the medicine that the 33-24 "Home Town Red Birds need tonight as they are really knocking the cover off the ball right now!! Leaders in tons of Offensive categories the Reds are a smooth 19-11 at home and a smooth 7-0 the last 7 starts by J. Cueto. The Giants will not get to J Cueto who owns a nice 5-1, 4.09 ERA mark this young season. Zito has been struggling as of late as he 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in his last 4 ba~ll games. We are firing away 2 fisted on the Red Birds tonight as a strong Knock Out Punch!! Reds Boys Kabooooooooooom
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

gill alexander | MLB Money Line Mon, 06/07/10 - 9:40 PM

double-dime bet 957 ATL (+120) Sportbet vs 958 ARI

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grad betting

Mypa Myllykoski - Kuopio PS,bet on MyPa 0, -0.5 (AH)@1.80-bet365<!-- / message -->

 

[BiggDogg5n2]

Computer Picks
13-5 Run (72%)
Fri 4-2
Sat 5-0
Sun 4-3
Mon
Reds -130
Rockies -155
Red Sox -145
Rangers +110
Red Sox/Indians OVER 9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS
Pirates
Phillies(RL)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMBLERS DATA
Dodgers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick

Under 9 runs bet. Oakland and Angels

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

461 - 333 run 58 %
Bonus Play MON Atl Braves + 115

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot & Cold Starters 6/7

Baseball 6/7
Hot pitchers
-- Cubs won last nine Silva starts (4-0, 2.55 in last four).
-- Hamels is 2-1, 2.25 in his last four home starts.
-- Cueto is 4-0, 3.00 in his last five starts. Giants are 6-0 with Zito if they score three or more runs.
-- Hammel is 1-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.
-- Lowe is 3-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.
-- Dodgers are 3-0 when Monasterios starts (1-0, 3.21).

-- Matsuzaka is 2-1, 2.79 in his last three starts.
-- Lee is 1-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.
-- Sheets is 3-1, 2.30 in his last five home starts. Kazmir is 2-0, 2.84 in his last couple road starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Eveland was 1-4, 9.48 in his last seven starts with Toronto.
-- Leblanc is 0-4, 6.33 in his last four starts.
-- Rodriguez is 2-5, 7.82 in his last seven starts.
-- Haren is 1-3, 6.21 in his last five starts.
-- Walters has 7.00 RA in his first two '10 starts.

-- Carmona is 0-3, 5.40 in his last three starts.
-- Feldman has a 6.69 RA in his last six starts.

Totals
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Pirate home games.
-- Under is 13-4-1 in last 18 Philadelphia games.
-- Six of last nine San Francisco road games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Rodriguez road starts.
-- Six of last eight Arizona home games went over the total.
-- Under is 13-5-1 in Cardinals' last 19 road games.

-- Over is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Cleveland games.
-- Four of last five Seattle road games went over the total.
-- Over is 10-5 in last fifteen Angel games.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won four of last six home games.
-- Reds are 11-3 in their last fourteen home games. Giants won seven of their last ten games overall.
-- Astros won six of their last eight games.
-- Braves won 10 of their last 12 games. Arizona won six of its last eight home games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last ten games. Dodgers won 13 of their last 18 home games

-- Red Sox won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Rangers are 15-5 in their last 20 home games.
-- Angels won eight of their last nine games. A's are 10-5 in their last 15 home games.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Phillies lost nine of their last 13 games.
-- Marlins lost three of their last four games.
-- Rockies lost three of their last four games.

-- Indians lost 11 of their last 14 home games.
-- Mariners lost eight of their last ten road games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL MLB

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 0-7 in its last 7 games as a road favorite. Pittsburgh is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125)

Game 951-952: San Diego at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (LeBlanc) 14.675; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.781
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Under

Game 953-954: San Francisco at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.864; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.382
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+115); Under

Game 955-956: Houston at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.798; Colorado (Hammel) 15.161
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145); Under

Game 957-958: Atlanta at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.619; Arizona (Haren) 15.365
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Over

Game 959-960: St. Louis at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Walters) 15.227; LA Dodgers (Montaserios) 16.706
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 961-962: Boston at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.511; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.133
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over

Game 963-964: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Lee) 16.039; Texas (Feldman) 15.337
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-130); Over

Game 965-966: LA Angels at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 16.793; Oakland (Sheets) 16.655
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Over

Game 967-968: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Silva) 14.425; Pittsburgh (Eveland) 15.577
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Under

 

[BrockLanders]

The Vegas Killers - (Comps)

John Harrison - Braves +110
Nolan Fernandez - ANGELS +120
Richie Parker - Reds -127 (2 Units)
Dave Eckstein - Rangers +114
Cahd Greene - Mariners - 120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George | MLB Money Line Mon, 06/07/10 - 7:10 PM

dime bet 954 CIN (-110) BetUS vs 953 SFG
Analysis:
Cincy -135

Cincy off a winning series this weekend against the Nats, as are the Giants who were on the road at Pitt, and struggled to a 2-1 series win. They take to the road again here against a hot Reds team with an offense hitting over .300 against right and left handers on offense. Zito has been solid this year for the Giants, but he will get hit tonight. Johnny Cueto toes the rubber for the Reds, and has a 5-1 record on the year and a 3.19 ERA at home. I like the offense of the Reds who have won 9 out of 11 at home, while the Giants have struggled losing 6 out of their last 8 on the road.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Greg Shaker | MLB Total Mon, 06/07/10 - 7:05 PM

triple-dime bet 951 SDP / 952 PHI Under 9 BetUS
Analysis: MLB: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies - Under 9 (LeBlanc/Hamels)(Best Bet) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 6/7/2010

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PAUL LEINER

100* Mariners -130
50* Reds -130
25* Over 8.5 Pitt/ChC

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NY Players Club

3* on Oakland A's -125